There is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL draft. It is extremely difficult to know the difference between the next Peyton Manning and the next JaMarcus Russell—regardless of how good a talent evaluator one is.

But that is part of life in the NFL—for both player and organization—and it is part of the reason fans love the NFL draft so much.

It is nearly impossible to guarantee anything, but here are a few first round selections that won't go wrong.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Contrary to all the chatter about Robert Griffin III being a possible No. 1 pick, Luck isn't going anywhere but Indianapolis. Why?

Because he's that good and the closest to a sure-thing in this draft. 

 

2. *Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

RGIII may have more potential than Luck, but he's a bigger threat to be a bust.

 

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Kalil won't go wrong in any way, shape or form. He'll start in the NFL for a long time even if he isn't an elite left tackle.

 

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Running backs are often derailed by injuries and, unfortunately, Richardson doesn't come without flags. He also comes with top-notch playmaking skills and elite potential, though, and is arguably the best player in this entire draft.

 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The LSU corner has elite cover skills and will be an immediate boost to the return game. Ultimately, he should be one of the best corners in the league in the coming years.

 

6. *St. Louis Rams (2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Is Blackmon on the level of A.J. Green or Calvin Johnson? No. But that doesn't mean he won't be a great NFL receiver all the same. He has too much overall football talent to fail at the next level.

 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

The same cannot be said of Coples, who will only be as good as he wants to be. If the UNC star takes to coaching and development he could be a star, but he is also as likely to bomb out of the league.

 

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Nothing sure about Tannehill, but his elite potential.

 

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

The same goes for Poe, the combine superstar has a ton of potential but is far from a sure thing.

 

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Reiff will not be an elite left tackle, but he could be a great starting right tackle for a number of years.

 

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

He'll set up on the interior and absolutely dominate from the beginning to the end of his career. He's the best guard this draft has to offer and there is no way he won't succeed.

 

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Ingram will be a hit or miss and they'll see it early in his career.

 

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

Forget about the surprising athleticism Kuechly possesses, the BC linebacker is a dominant tackler and has superior instincts. He'll be a star immediately.

 

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

We don't know what is in store for Barron, but we do know although he won't be an elite player in this league; he will be a good starter for a long time.

 

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

He'll step on the field and be an immediate contributor, but his ceiling is limited.

 

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Much of the same goes for Upshaw, who fits best in the 3-4 defense he played in in college.

 

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

There is nothing guaranteed about Dre, but he does have great potential. He needs to get bigger and stronger though.

 

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Nick Perry, DE, USC

The USC pass rusher is a boom-or-bust prospect with no guarantee of success in the league.

 

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

The super versatile Glenn will find a spot on the field somewhere—he's simply too big and gifted.

 

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

And a lot of the same goes for Cox. He possesses great size and versatility and is too good to be kept off the field.

 

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Wright has a lot of potential, but he'll need to develop as an all-around receiver if he is to reach that potential.

 

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Unless he gets stronger he'll have trouble making a name for himself in this league.

 

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

A rising prospect with a great size-speed ratio, Gilmore isn't guaranteed to succeed in the NFL.

 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

Like Upshaw at No. 16 to the Jets, Hightower has the fortunate pleasure of going to a defense that immediately suits his style.

 

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

He will never be elite, but he could should be a solid run blocker throughout his career.

 

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Complete boom-or-bust prospect, Jeffery will only be as good as he wants to be—it is all on him.

 

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Brockers has elite potential and could go much higher in the draft, but there is nothing guaranteed with him.

 

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Transitioning from DE to OLB isn't always easy, so it all comes down to how Branch works at his game.

 

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

If Jenkins can stay on the field he'll be star, but that is much easier said than done.

 

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

Raw, talented athlete has a ton to learn before he can contribute anything but a go route.

 

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut

Talented Big East prospect won't wow you with numbers, but he'll be a player in this league.

 

32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

If this pass-catching tight end winds up with Eli Manning it will be hard to deny him success early in his career.

 

*Rams trade No. 2 overall pick to Redskins for 2012, 2013, 2014 first-round picks and 2012 second-round pick.