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By Alexandra Fletcher, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

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LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Currency analysts from some of the biggest banks expect the European Central Bank to hold its key interest rate at a historic 1% low.

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Analysts also believe that ECB president Mario Draghi won't be inclined to signal an end to its non-conventional policy measures. Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen last week said it was too early for the ECB to exit but said it " has to think about how to prepare for the exit."

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Here is a rundown of expectations from currencies analysts:

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BNP PARIBAS: The ECB will be in wait-and-see mode. It thinks the central bank was more optimistic in March than in February about the impact of its three-year long-term refinancing operations, or LTROs. So it is very unlikely to introduce any more policy measures at this time.

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COMMERZBANK: It will be "steady as she goes" from the ECB because it has only been a little over two months since the last LTRO. It is way too early to talk about an exit program.

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CREDIT AGRICOLE: Thinks there will be no change to interest rates or policy. Thinks unconventional policy is here to stay for a while despite an internal dispute at the ECB over an eventual exit strategy. The bank thinks more time will be needed to assess the impact of the LTROs on the real euro-zone economy.

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DANSKE: Thinks it is "100% certain" the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged because recent economic data have not been weak enough to justify a cut. Also says the ECB will abstain from rate hikes altogether until early 2014 as it assesses the impact of the LTROs. Thinks it is too early for the ECB to engage in an exit strategy for its non-standard policy measures even though the market will be looking for hints that it might be considering it.

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GOLDMAN SACHS: Believes ECB interest rates will be kept firmly on hold and doesn't expect an announcement of further non-standard measures, given that the market is still digesting the impact of the ECB's three-year LTROs. Also doesn't expect Draghi to signal an exit from extraordinary policy just yet.

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ING BANK: An interest rate cut seems to be off the cards in order to appease the German Bundesbank but further non-standard measures shouldn't be excluded given the risk of a stagflation in the euro zone because of high energy prices. It thinks discussion of an exit strategy is way too premature right now.

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JP MORGAN: The ECB will stand pat on interest rates and leave the door open to further non-standard monetary measures, despite the talk of an exit. Beyond tomorrow's meeting, the bank thinks 1% isn't a hard floor and that the ECB will cut below that level if economic data and financial market conditions deteriorate sharply.

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ROYAL BANK OF CANADA: Expects no change to liquidity or monetary policies. Draghi is likely to retain the hawkish tone adopted last month and will be quizzed on what exit strategies the ECB might be contemplating.

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UNICREDIT: Expects no change in the ECB's refinancing rate and no announcement of further liquidity measures. The introductory statement is likely to be similar to last month's while Draghi's question and answer session with journalists will probably focus on the threat of excess liquidity leading to inflation and asset price bubbles, and the central bank's eventual exit strategy. Draghi should sound relaxed about possible risks at this stage, but will be eager to emphasize that the ECB has plenty of tools to detect and counter their emergence.

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-By Alexandra Fletcher, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9462; alexandra.fletcher@dowjones.com; @djfxtrader

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    (END) Dow Jones Newswires   04-03-121059ET   Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 

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