Jon Wilner: An early primer on NCAA Tournament hotshots and Cinderella candidates on day true story



We're just over a week away from what, for some, is the most anticipated day of the college basketball season: Office Pool Monday (which is quickly followed by NCAA Tournament Tuesday, with the first day of the First Four).

If you haven't paid close attention for the past four months, if you don't know which Zeller brother plays for Indiana and which plays for North Carolina -- and especially if you didn't even know there were Zeller brothers -- here's a primer:

The best team in the land is Kentucky, with its stable of future NBA lottery picks.

Unless the best team is North Carolina, with its, err, stable of future NBA lottery picks.

Or it could be Syracuse, the best team in the best conference, the Big East.

Then again, it could be Michigan State or Kansas or Ohio State or Missouri or Duke.

If you're looking for the elite, those eight are it -- unless Baylor gets its act together or Marquette keeps sizzling.

We know the best team does not reside in the woeful Pac-12, and we know it's not Butler. The Bulldogs, who reached the championship game the past two years, won't even make the NCAAs this year unless they win the Horizon League tournament (as the No. 5 seed).

But there are a handful of Butler wannabes -- teams from outside the traditional power conferences with the potential to bust your brackets and reach the Final Four.

The list starts with Wichita State and includes Murray State,

Southern Mississippi and Long Beach State.

And New Mexico and Gonzaga and Davidson, which beat Kansas.

And Saint Louis and Saint Mary's and Nevada-Las Vegas, which beat North Carolina.

While the odds are stacked against any of them reaching New Orleans -- the Final Four is traditionally stocked with teams from the power conferences -- there's a good chance a handful will survive the opening week.

They're all well coached, many of them played demanding schedules, and a few possess playmakers capable of hitting big shots in the crucible of March.

The best of the group is probably Creighton forward Doug McDermott, who averaged 25.3 points in three games against Big Ten opponents.

Then again, UNLV forward Mike Moser had 16 points and 18 rebounds against North Carolina.

And New Mexico's Drew Gordon, the former Archbishop Mitty star, will be one of the tournament's most talented big men.

One of them might make the play that topples North Carolina, which possesses the nation's best front line (center Tyler Zeller and forwards Harrison Barnes and John Henson) but isn't always locked in defensively.

Or maybe Kentucky is the upset victim. The Wildcats have the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft in forward Anthony Davis, but their starting five includes three freshmen.

No player is more equipped to carry his team to the title than Kansas forward Thomas Robinson, except the Jayhawks are always a threat to flame out in the early rounds. (Pick them if you dare.)

And no coaches are more capable of pulling the right strings in March than Michigan State's Tom Izzo, North Carolina's Roy Williams and Duke's Mike Krzyzewski.

You don't need to have watched a single game the past four months to know that.

For more on college sports, see Jon Wilner's College Hotline at blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports. Contact him at jwilner@mercurynews.com or 408-920-5716.




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